You Win Some, You Lose Some, (and You Really Win Some)

So I was 1 for 2 on the prognosticating, I got Alonso right; and missed on Castroneves over Franchitti.  Truth be told predicting Alonso was easy, only McLaren and Ferrari had a chance at winning; and McLaren dominates at Monaco.  What  will be interesting is to see what come of the investigation into whether Lewis Hamilton was forbidden from challenging Alonso for the win.  My guess is nothing will come of it, the FIA really doesn’t want to open this pandora’s box.

I underestimated Franchitti and AGR; his qualifying on the outside of row 1 should have been a sign that he was inline for a big finish.  If I had to pick a AGR car to win it would have been Kanaan, but his less then stellar luck at Indy bit again with a very late spin.  But in the end Franchitti and his team ran a flawless race overcoming a cut tire, and used the rain delays to their advantage.

But the real winners yesterday didn’t run in either race.  In fact they weren’t even at the track; the real winners were the TV audience because they were treated to sight that was nothing short of awe inspiring.  As the rain poured down on Indianapolis it created a vision of beauty that defies description: Ashley Judd in a soaking wet sun dress.

Hank Picks the Winners (Or How I Make a Fool of Myself)

Well if I’ve learned one thing this week its this; nothing drives people away from a blog faster then talking about open wheel racing. I think LJ only slogged through because of the pictures. Oh well, I like open wheel racing, and this site is more about entertaining myself then it is entertaining you.

So now that you’ve seen the 13 drivers with the best odds of winning two of the biggest sporting events in the world, its time to make my picks for the winners. And lets face it, the odds aren’t in my favor.

Indianapolis 500 I think Danica, Tony Kanaan, and Sam Hornish Jr all have great chances at picking up the win, but I think this is the year that Helio Castroneves gets his third. The odds of a team (Penkse) having back to back wins from the pole are admittedly slim, but those things mean less when you’re talking about an outfit like Penske. He has the talent, the temperament, and the equipment to win.

Monaco Grand Prix I really wanted to pick Lewis Hamilton and his perfect record at Monaco, but this week he is the first time he’s looked like a rookie. He has really gotten caught up in the sideshow that is Monte Carlo, and has really been pushing his car to the limits, two things that don’t combine for a good result. Meanwhile his teammate Fernando Alonso has been having a great, if quiet, week. McLaren traditionally does well at Monaco, and Ferrari is seemingly not keeping pace. While Ferrari will undoubtedly close in it would appear to be Alonso’s race to lose.

So on Sunday we’ll see how I am at this prognosticating.

Get to Know Your Indy 500 Teams: Team Penske

Our third and final team preview is Penske racing. Penske is the dominant team in American open wheel racing with 11 series championships, 14 500 wins and 124 open wheel victories. They are the Yankees of American racing. Lets me the drivers:

Helio Castroneves

Why You Know Him: Two time 500 champion better known as “spiderman” for climbing the fences after his victories.

Why He Will Win: Penske and Ganassi are the class of the field, and Helio is running well this season so far.

Why He Won’t Win: You can’t win everything? Helio is one of a small class of drivers who’s biggest barricade to victory is blind luck.

Sam Hornish Jr

Why You Know Him: 3 times IRL series champion; defending 500 champion.

Why He Will Win: Penske power and talent.

Why He Won’t Win: Its hard to win back to back, hard but not impossible.

Get to Know Your Indy 500 Teams: Target/Chip Ganassi Racing

The second entry in our series of teams with a shot to win on Sunday is Target/Chip Ganassi Racing. Lets meet our drivers:

Dan Wheldon

Why You Know Him: He’s the 2005 Indy 500 and IRL series champion.

Why He Will Win: Great equipment and tremendous talent.

Why He Won’t Win: Wheldon and Ganassi are both risk takers, and those risks have a tendency to backfire.

Scott Dixon

Why You Know Him: 2003 IRL champion; frequent flirter with F1.

Why He Will Win: Again, great equipment, and the patience his teammate lacks.

Why He Won’t Win: His average finish at Indy is around 13th.

Get to Know Your Indy 500 Teams: Andretti Green Racing

The first team in a week long series of team that have the best shot at winning is Andretti Green Racing. Let’s meet them:

Marco Andretti

Why You Know Him: Dad is Michael, Granddad is Mario.

Why He Will Win: Because he was within a few inches of winning last year in his first attempt.

Why He Won’t Win: His last name is Andretti, 5 family members have ran countless 500s with 1 win to show for it. This place hasn’t been kind to them.

Tony Kanaan

Why You Know Him: He’s the 2004 series champ and one of the best open wheel racers outside F1. So you probably have no idea who he is.

Why He Will Win: He is the best driver in the IRL today without a win at the Brickyard to his credit; and there’s no way he ends his career that way.

Why He Won’t Win: Seriously? It just may not be his year. Kanaan has the talent, does he have the luck (and the equipment)?

Dario Franchitti

Why You Know Him: He’s Mr. Ashley Judd.

Why He Will Win: Good equipment and starting position (outside of row 1).

Why He Won’t Win: A better road racer then oval racer, he’s never been a serious threat at Indianapolis.

Michael Andretti

Why You Know Him: Son of Mario, long and successful open wheel career he’s now semi-retired.

Why He Will Win: In almost every statistical measurement Michael has been one of the most successful drivers ever at Indianapolis.

Why He Won’t Win: Every statistical measurement except wins; Indianapolis has been unusually cruel to Michael.

Danica Patrick

Why You Know Her: The best known, and arguably the most talented female racer in the world.

Why She Will Win: She finally have top 3 equipment under her, plus the experience of the last two 500s.

Why She Won’t Win: Top 3 equipment isn’t good enough when the top 2 are that much further ahead. Penske and Ganassi are as far ahead of AGR as AGR is ahead of the rest of the field. She and Kanaan have the talent to win, will she have the equipment?

Le NAS-CAR?

Sadly for Hank here in America stock car racing is the 800 lb gorilla of motorsports, its everywhere now to the exclusion of open wheel racing.  You certainly cannot fault the marketing of NASCAR; its nothing short of genius, races almost every weekend, family friendly and with drivers that are accessible and easy to relate to.  The racing?  Meh.  Innovation is stifled, the tracks have taken on a cookie cutter feel, and the drivers for most part are interchangeable.

But in the rest of the world NASCAR is a curiosity, sure its racing; but its not what they’re used to.  What they’re used to is open wheel racing and F1 and the Indy Cars to be exact.  Globally F1 is the 1600 lb gorilla; races on every continent but Antarctica, budgets in the hundreds of millions, and a fan base to match.  And while Indy Cars as a series aren’t followed closely the Indianapolis 500 is.  It is the event that made racing a sport and not just a spectacle.

So next Sunday three races will occur, and here in America most of the attention will only be paid to one.  While the Coke 600 is a great race, it isn’t even the biggest race in its series, and has no historical meaning to fans outside of NASCAR’s current run of popularity.  The Indianapolis 500 and the Monaco Grand Prix are races of tremendous history, and are the two biggest open wheel races world wide.

My point?  There are 5 teams with the best chance to win these two races. I will prodile a team each day this week leading up to these two races.   Coming up on Monday will be Andretti Green Racing, followed by Gnassi Racing on Tuesday, Ferrari on Wednesday, Penske Racing on Thursday and finally McLaren Mercedes on Friday.